Anyone looking for cause for mild optimism after an 0-4
preseason can find it at ESPN.com, where more than half of the football prognosticators foresee the Bills qualifying for the playoffs for the first
time since 1999.
For what that’s worth.
Would you, too, like to predict the upcoming NFL season like
an expert for a monolithic media outlet?
Very simple, really.
1)
Look at last year’s final standings.
2)
Predict that 2012 will be a nearly exact replica
of 2011.
3)
Make one or two bold guesses at which of last
year’s losers might sneak in as a wildcard entry.
4)
Hope that no one remembers to check back on your
picks at the end of the year.
For some reason, ESPN felt publishing the predictions of one
or two or five of its various football specialists would be insufficient. No,
the public needs to know what 16 men (and they are all men, of course) believe will happen over the next five months.
In a remarkable display of group think, all 16 selected New
England to win the AFC East, Green Bay to take the NFC North and Houston to
prevail in the AFC South. Which is precisely what the Patriots, Packers and
Texans did last year.
Selections were relatively diverse in the NFC West, where 14
of 16 went with San Francisco to repeat.
In the AFC North, the panel was split evenly between the
Ravens and Steelers. Which should not be confused with a lack of consensus –
all but one of the 16 picked both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to make the playoffs.
Just like they did in 2011.
For more than half of ESPN’s guys, then, the Bills represent
the relatively daring hunch that helps them convince themselves, “No, I am not just lazily
predicting that last year will happen again this year.”
Buffalo makes sense as the chic pick. Mario Williams was the
biggest free-agent acquisition not named Peyton Manning. He is joined by fellow
signee Mark Anderson to lead what should be a rejuvenated pass rush, while
flanking tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus to anchor a much-improved run
defense – at least in theory.
The offense was pretty good last year, at least until Fred
Jackson got hurt. He’s not hurt now.
And, frankly, that is about all an expert needs as the
foundation of such a bold pick. Plus, Buffalo’s 12-season absence from the
postseason makes for an even tastier choice.
Of course, theory hits reality on Sunday, when the Bills travel to New Jersey. They will not be facing the same Jets who imploded during the final weeks of 2011.
No, these Jets are a year older and made a key addition by acquiring the least-accurate passer in modern NFL history in order to grab back-page headlines in the New York tabloids, agitate their suburban-hillbilly fan base and tweak their already-insecure starting quarterback.
If all the optimism surrounding the Bills comes to fruition, Anderson, Dareus and the Williamses should spend most of Sunday chasing Mark Sanchez and/or Tim Tebow all over the Meadowlands.
If not, Buffalo will be well on its way to proving that history does repeat itself. Again and again.
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