Scrambled Playoff Picture Actually Pretty Simple

For all the teams and games in play this weekend and next, Buffalo's path to the NFL playoffs for the first time in 15 years is pretty simple.

The Bills, of course, need to beat the Raiders today in Oakland and the Patriots next Sunday in New England (note: "simple" does not mean "easy," or even "tenable," as it pertains to the second half of that must-do list). If they can just win at Gillette Stadium for the first time ever (and not soil themselves against the 2-12 Raiders), they have a 77 percent chance at the postseason.

As for the rest of the contenders:

-- Baltimore closes at Houston, then home against Cleveland. The Ravens are already 9-5, and are not going to lose to a team quarterbacked (to use that made-up verb very, very loosely) by Johnny Manziel, so we're going to concede them one wild-card berth.

-- Since San Diego (8-6) drubbed the Bills 27-10 in Week 3, a San Francisco win tonight would be nice, since it would render the Chargers incapable of reaching 10 wins.

-- Pittsburgh (9-5) isn't going to lose two straight at home, but beating Kansas City (8-6) on Sunday and Cincinnati (9-4-1) in Week 17 would give the Bills the last AFC playoff berth, IF ...

-- Denver (11-3 and already the AFC West champs) wins at Cincinnati (9-4-1) Monday night and the Pittsburgh takes down the Bengals in the season finale, thereby winning the AFC Central title.

To put it as simply as possible, if Buffalo and the Steelers each win twice, while San Diego loses once (the Chargers close at home against the Chiefs), the Bills are in as the sixth and final seed.

There are other scenarios, which you can figure out for yourself with the New York Times' handy playoff simulator. But, beyond the requisite Bills-Patriots stunner next week, the one above does not require any major upsets, with each of the teams Buffalo needs to win this week favored to do just that.