Saturday, October 18, 2014

Accommodating Vikings May Be Perfect Guest


After a week spent attempting to heal from another torching by Tom Brady while trying to figure out whether their last-string wide receiver wants to be traded or not and how to get C.J. Spiller past the line of scrimmage with the ball in his hands, the National Football League schedule provides the Buffalo Bills with a reminder that things could always be worse.

The Minnesota Vikings arrive in town fresh off two comprehensive defeats by NFC Central opponents, having lost to Green Bay and Detroit by a combined 59-13. If that's not demoralizing enough, all Minnesota's points in those two games came in the fourth quarter, after the offenses of the Packers and Lions were done scoring for the day.

Despite putting up 558 total yards -- 317 of them through the air by Teddy Bridgewater in his first NFL start -- in an inexplicable-in-retrospect 41-28 upset of Atlanta in Week 4, the Vikings rank 28th in total offense and 30th in passing.

Even their No. 13 ranking in rushing offense is deceptive, since 241 yards came against the Falcons, who apparently forgot they had a game that day. They compiled another 185 during their only other win, a 34-6 runaway in St. Louis on Opening Day.

Of that total, 67 came on a reverse by Cordarrelle Patterson, who has done nothing of substance since. Adrian Peterson had another 75 in his only game before his parenting techniques became public.

Arithmetic tells us that means the Vikings have averaged 73.3 rushing yards in their four losses, or a shade more than Buffalo's top-ranked run defense has given up.

Of course, that status is a bit misleading, too. San Diego and New England did not need to run the ball to overwhelm the Bills, given the liberties Philip Rivers and Brady took with Buffalo's secondary.

Not that the Bills don't haven't posted misleading stats of their own. The pass rush has piled up 19 sacks, the second-highest total in the league, but had no impact in the second half of the losses to the Chargers and Patriots.

Buffalo figures to make the sack numbers more gaudy on Sunday, as Detroit dumped Bridgewater eight times in last week's 17-3 grinding of the Vikings.

If those match-up trends continue and the weather forecast calling for a cool, windy afternoon in Orchard Park plays out, the Bills could dominate to a level that renders their offense just about irrelevant.

Which, given its performance for all but a quarter here and there, would be Buffalo's best-case scenario. Just as Minnesota's offensive problems present a perfect fit for the Bills' defensive strengths, the Vikings defense offer Kyle Orton an ideal opportunity to dissuade the thought that Doug Whaley should be searching in quiet desperation for any other ambulatory quarterback before the Oct. 28 trade deadline.

The Bills are 1-1 since Doug Marrone replaced E.J. Manuel with Orton. They would be 0-2 if, two weeks ago, Detroit had employed even the second-worst kicker in the league.

On Sunday, they host a team with no discernible strengths, one playing with a rookie quarterback making his second professional start and without their best player.

The Bills, of course, have a few problems of their own. The 37-22 beating by the Patriots was their third loss in four games, a stretch during which they have looked more like a team that is unraveling than one getting its act together. This week's turmoil, centering around who, exactly wants Mike Williams traded and who decides whether Spiller and Mario Williams are on the field, and when, does not help.

After Manuel's rather sudden benching and the seeming lack of any mid-game adjustments against New England, Whaley and Marrone have plenty of explaining to do about their team's direction, even with a if a 3-3 mark second in a pretty crummy AFC East for the moment.

Minnesota's visit opens a string of six straight games against highly mediocre opponents, with four of them at home.

Before anybody starts thinking about winning streaks or Buffalo's record heading into a Dec. 7 game at Denver, though, they have to prove they can put together a complete game against the likes of the Vikings.

Otherwise, a season that started out so promisingly turns out just like the previous 14. And it will be time to start wondering if both, or either, of the Dougs will be around to see the end of it.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Forty-one Questions The Bills' New Owner Should Ask Their Coach And General Manager


With all the pageantry of his first weekend as the second-ever owner of the Buffalo Bills out of the way, Terry Pegula finds himself settling into the less-glamorous reality of owning the Buffalo Bills this week.

It only makes sense that one of the first orders of business would be holding a meeting with the company's top executives, especially the guys who run the football team itself, general manager Doug Whaley and head coach Doug Marrone. Particularly after their creation managed to look an awful lot like a Buddy Nix-Chan Gailey production during Sunday's biannual flogging by the New England Patriots.

Pegula is historically more of a hockey guy and appears most comfortable working from a script (and we do not just say this because Kim Pegula seemed to be mouthing the words to Terry's midfield remarks before Sunday's 37-22 loss to New England along with her husband, evoking images of the couple running through his lines at the breakfast table). So We Want Marangi respectfully offers the following pertinent questions:

--- So, you two do have some sort of plan, right?

--- Did that plan involve Kyle Orton playing quarterback?

--- Had you ever watched him play quarterback before?

--- Kim and I have been busy running the Sabres, so I could be wrong, but doesn't he play a lot like that guy with the beard who was the quarterback a couple of years ago?

--- I keep hearing you say he gives us (use of finger quotes recommended, but not absolutely necessary with the right voice inflection) "the best chance to win." How so?

--- There were a couple of plays Sunday when Orton stood perfectly still while a Patriots player ran at him as fast as he could. Was that intentional? Like he thought the pass rusher might think the whistle had blown if he didn't try to get away, or become transfixed by his eerie calm -- which could be mistaken for obliviousness -- while under duress and run right by him?

--- Why didn't you draft somebody better?

--- I see. With the very first pick you made after getting hired, you say? Well, I know the rest of the team hasn't been very good in a while, either. Why didn't you draft somebody to give the poor kid some help?

--- Ah. And where was this Watkins fellow on Sunday?

--- Wait a minute. You're saying that if the other team assigns its best player to guard our best player, we just sort of give up on getting the ball to him?

--- Even Kim and I knew the Patriots like to throw to that Gronkowski character, but they still did it an awful lot, didn't they?

--- Anyway, my hockey people tell me that by losing a lot, we can get a really good player in the next draft. And they're doing a great job at that. So at least we can get another quarterback come spring if this Orton thing doesn't work out, right?

--- What do you mean, we don't have a first-round pick? Doesn't everybody get one? That doesn't sound right. Hold on while I call Bob Kraft and see why we ...

--- Oh. Let me make sure I'm keeping up here. So you spent your first first-round draft choice on a quarterback, then the next two on a receiver to help him out. But we've already ditched the quarterback for somebody that four other teams told to hit the bricks and we don't throw to the receiver when other teams think we're going to do that. Have I got this straight?

--- But you do have a plan, you say?

--- What about that other receiver, the one you got for a sixth-round draft choice? Where was he on Sunday?

--- That's right. I remember seeing something about that on the Twitter. Seems like a bit of a jerk. Didn't you throw him off your team in college?

--- But then you traded for him?

--- I see he wants to be traded again already. What can we get for him?

--- Well, let's not get bogged down on one side of the ball. I keep hearing that we have a great defense. Do great defenses usually give up 37 points at home?

--- Yes, Tom Brady is very good. But I noticed that after we got within a touchdown in the fourth quarter, and absolutely had to stop New England to have a chance to tie it up, Mario Williams wasn't on the field. How much am I paying him again?

--- So why wasn't he, or that No. 55 who had sacked Brady twice, on the field for the most important series of the season?

--- Rotation? Isn't that a baseball thing?

--- Yes, everyone needs rest to be at their best. Even I like a nap once in a while. But in a spot like that, don't you want our best players out there?

--- It sure did seem like a running situation. But haven't the Patriots been throwing in spots like that since Brady has been Brady?

--- So you're telling me that one of your assistants makes those decisions?

--- The guy who asked his players to carry him off the field in Detroit?

--- Isn't that kind of like throwing a birthday party for yourself?

--- Who is this Duke Williams person?

--- Is he an actual duke?

--- That's too bad. Has anyone told him that he is allowed to turn around while he's covering a receiver?

--- Are you sure he knows that he can try to catch the ball, or bat it away, or do something besides shove the receiver with both hands?

--- And that when an opposing receiver runs by our cornerback, like on that last New England touchdown, he is supposed to cover that receiver, instead of sort of standing there, then half-heartedly chasing him into the end zone?

--- Who do you have to check with? Schwartz? Is that the birthday-party guy?

--- Back to the offense for a minute. On that play where C.J. Spiller gets the ball and runs out of bounds behind the line, is that the way it's supposed to work?

--- I didn't think so. Why don't you try some other things, like throwing to him down the field a little?

--- I know he's not much of a blocker -- I saw him almost get Orton killed in Detroit. But Fred Jackson's pretty good at protection. Why not use them both at the same time more, and split Spiller out or something?

--- So you're telling me we're better off having another first-round pick on the bench and a guy you traded for in street clothes while that No. 15, who nobody drafted, plays. What's his name again?

--- Ha! Hogan's Heroes always cracked me up. Is that still on in re-runs anywhere?

--- But seriously. You're absolutely sure you have a plan?

--- Well, we've covered a lot of ground here. Good talk. Just one more thing before we wrap up. So did you guys buy houses around here, or are you renting?

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Not A Typo: Bills Should Beat Patriots


Buffalo hosts New England today, with sole possession of first place in the AFC East at stake, as a three-point underdog. Given the way the Patriots have toyed with the Bills for lo these past 13 years, it feels weird to even think this, but the Bills should be favored by at least as much.

The Bills are better at every position except one, and the Patriots' singular advantage, while glaringly obvious, should be negated by their deficiencies.

Buffalo enters the first-place showdown tied for the NFL lead in quarterback sacks and second only to Super Bowl champion Seattle in run defense. The defensive line has been the foundation for those lofty rankings and should overwhelm New England's shuffling offensive line, which bears primary responsibility for Tom Brady looking so crappy through the season's first quarter.

The Bills' front wall should only improve with the expected return of Kyle Williams, who missed the dominant performance in Detroit with a knee injury. Brady has traditionally struggled most against opponents whose front four has been able to decimate the pocket, as in both Super Bowl losses to New York. Williams and Marcell Dareus, who registered three of Buffalo's six sacks against Detroit, should rupture Brady's protection, either burying him themselves or forcing him into the perilous rush lanes occupied by Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes.

What with the league's official approval of the sale of the team to Terry and Kim Pegula, along with the game's early-season importance and a forecast conducive to high-intensity tailgating, a raucous crowd should amplify the talent gap up front. Sufficiently disruptive noise from the home fans should scramble the visitors' timing on offense, particularly when that offense relies heavily on play calls and blocking schemes being adjusted at the line. That's what happened a couple weeks ago in Kansas City, when New England got rolled 41-14 and the hopeful started talking about the end of the Patriots' divisional dominance.

After several weeks of struggle, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller should be able to find some running room against New England's defense, which rates 18th in the league against the run. The Chiefs' two-back approach yielded 107 rushing yards from Knile Davis and 92 more by Jamaal Charles.

Any degree of success from a running game that has struggled since Buffalo's 29-10 win over Miami in Week 2 should create some space for Sammy Watkins, who does not seem to need much, and the rest of the Bills receivers, as well as provide cover for Kyle Orton, who historically needs all he can get.

This may also sound historically inaccurate, but Watkins, Robert Woods and Mike Williams should give Orton a set of targets superior to Brady, who has little beyond Rob Gronkowski and a bunch of failed Wes Welker impersonators from which to choose.

OK. That is a whole lot of shoulds. And, as the Bills have demonstrated repeatedly over the past 15 years or so, should does not mean a whole lot once the game begins.

New England, as demonstrated throughout last Sunday night's 43-17 wipeout of previously unbeaten Cincinnati, is far from finished. And for a guy who pundits had on his way out of Foxborough, Brady looked a lot like the guy who guided the Patriots to 11 of the last 13 divisional titles, five Super Bowl berths and three Lombardi Trophies against the Bengals.

Bill Belichick has shown a knack for finding new ways to torment the Bills over the years, dating back to the two-man line that Jim Kelly never quite figured out how to exploit in Super Bowl XXV. Futility against the Patriots has been a constant through Buffalo's era of revolving quarterbacks, so the less asked of Orton, the better.

New England's anti-Bills innovations have not been limited to defense, either. You might recall New England's visit two years ago, when the Patriots limped into Buffalo with a 1-2 record and a struggling running game that shredded the 2-1 Bills for 247 yards on the way to 45 unanswered points and a 52-21 humiliation.

Besides signalling the end of any hope Buffalo might accomplish much of anything with Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterbacking and Chan Gailey coaching, that game inspired Brady to vocalize his feelings about Bills fans, as GIF-ed above.

This year's renewal provides a similar crossroads for Orton and Doug Marrone, as well as general manager Doug Whaley and the rest of Buffalo management.

Beating New England does not necessarily mean a shift in the balance of divisional power. After their only two wins over Belichick and Brady, in 2003 and 2011, the Bills went on to finish 6-10.

If they can not beat these Patriots under these circumstances, though, there is little reason to hope Buffalo will wind up in any better shape this time around.

And if that happens, the Pegulas should start thinking about who they want managing their $1.4 billion investment.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

First Place, For Now


It took the longest game-winning field goal in Buffalo's football history, made possible by one of the worst days ever by any modern National Football League kicker.

And another stifling performance by the best run defense the Bills have mounted since the last time they made the playoffs, 15 years ago, an effort eased by an opponent lacking its top three running backs for most of the day.

And the team's first quarterback to take the field wearing a pure mustache since this blog's namesake spending much of his debut producing results remarkably similar to his immediate predecessors before hitting on a few big throws at the end.

Each element was required for an improbable 17-14 win over Detroit that leaves Buffalo in an uncustomary position -- sharing first place in the AFC East with their co-occupants coming to town on Sunday.

(Facial-hair note: Ryan Fitzpatrick wore an increasingly full beard through most of his stint in Buffalo. Early 1980s backup David Humm had upper-lip growth appropriate to the era, but thankfully never started a game for the Bills. You have to go back to We Want Marangi's patron saint to find the last Bills starting quarterback to take the field looking like he just stepped out a men's clothing ad from 1974 before Orton on Sunday. And since Gary Marangi was 0-for-7 as Buffalo's starter, you could certainly make the case that Orton is already the greatest mustachioed quarterback the Bills have ever had.)

Dan Carpenter's 58-yard field goal with four seconds remaining capped the slow-motion comeback, giving the Bills their only lead of the day, as well as a 3-2 record with New England due for its annual visit to Orchard Park.

Carpenter's game-winner was the second-longest in franchise history to Steve Christie's first-half-ending 59-yarder in 1993. He probably never would have had the chance if his Lions counterpart, Alex Henery, could have managed to make even one of the three shorter kicks he botched, the last just 40 seconds earlier.

The single biggest play came on the snap following what may well be Henery's final attempt as a professional (he was cut by the Lions on Monday), when new Buffalo quarterback Kyle Orton -- in his first outing since replacing E.J. Manuel -- threw a little too quickly and slightly behind Sammy Watkins. The rookie showed that he may well be worth at least one of the two first-round picks the Bills gave up to get him by doing this:


Watkins' freakish catch set up Carpenter's winner, which keeps the Bills atop the AFC East for at least another week.

Besides Henery, primary responsibility for that lofty position belongs to Buffalo's defense.

Through most of a playoff drought that dates to the first days of the millenium, the Bills were guilty of providing comfort, if not aid, to opposing running backs, as well as quarterbacks facing third-down situations. Suddenly, they're among the NFL's elite in both areas, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game and the lowest percentage of third-down conversions.

In Detroit, two other former first-round picks made the crawl-back possible.

The Lions were already ahead 14-0 -- thanks to Orton's downright Manuelesque scoring throw to Detroit's Rashean Mathis -- and moving toward an even bigger lead early in the second quarter. Then Stephon Gilmore, taken with the No. 10 pick of the 2012 draft, staged his version of the one-man tip drill, reversing what looked like a long march to a blowout loss and leading to the first of Carpenter's three successful field goals.

The Lions would reach Buffalo's end of the field just twice more the rest of the way, thanks to a Buffalo defense anchored by Marcell Dareus, the third overall pick in 2011. Despite the absence of Kyle Williams at the other tackle, the mammoth tackle terrorized the Lions by sacking Matthew Stafford three times, snuffing two runs behind the line and generally disrupting whatever game plan Detroit had in mind.

Future Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush both departed after early injuries, leaving Stafford with Golden Tate as his only viable weapon. That was almost enough, as they connected seven times for 134 yards, including a 55-yard catch-and-run with a minute left to set up Henery's game-loser.

The rest of the Lions produced a total of 129 yards, while succeeding just once on third down in 11 tries.

With Orton looking very much like a quarterback who took the spring and summer off before signing with Buffalo days before the regular season opener, the Bills weren't any better for the first three quarters.

C.J. Spiller's trademark lateral moves against the league's top-ranked defense yielded all of seven yards on nine carries, and his whiff on blitzing linebacker Ashlee Palmer nearly got Orton hospitalized on Buffalo's second series.

Fred Jackson could not do much more in the first half, but picked up 25 yards on five third-quarter touches as the Bills moved into field-goal range twice. Carpenter bonked an upright from 50 yards out on the first try, but hit from 25 with a minute to go in the third to pull Buffalo within a touchdown and two-point conversion.

To that point, Orton had shown little to justify the switch from Manuel. Besides locking in on Watkins on Mathis's touchdown pick, his completions had been almost exclusively the sort of check-down dumps that got Buffalo's top pick in 2013 benched and Ryan Fitzpatrick and his old-timey beard exiled to Tennessee, then Houston. After the Bills failed to get a snap off before the play clock expired in the first quarter, the television camera panned to Manuel, whose expression read, "I could do that."

One of the biggest knocks on Manuel had been his ineffectiveness on third down, with the Bills going 5-for-16 in his last start, the previous week's 23-17 loss in Houston. Through three quarters in Detroit, Orton's offense was 2-for-11.

Just when Doug Marrone's quarterbacking decision was looking increasingly irrelevant, though, Orton warmed up. He delivered a third-and-6 toss to Watkins, who twisted just beyond the marker. After hitting Robert Woods down the middle for 17 yards, Orton went for it all on third-and-10 and almost got it, dropping the ball perfectly into the hands of Marquise Goodwin for 42 yards.

After a flip to wide-open backup tight end Chris Gragg for Buffalo's lone touchdown, Orton audibled out of a pass call, allowing Jackson to tie it up with a two-point conversion run through the middle.

The tenuous nature of the victory suggests one of two possibilities for Buffalo's upcoming first-place showdown with New England, whose 43-17 evisceration of Cincinnati on Sunday night should put to rest any thought that the Patriots are not still the team to beat in the division.

Having beaten a playoff contender on the road, regardless of the aesthetics involved, could give Orton and the offense confidence that they are at least competent enough to avoid wasting dominant efforts by what is shaping up as a very special defense.

Or it will turn out to be as fluky as it looked and, despite everything that is new about these Bills, nothing has really changed.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Counterpoint: Orton Might Not Suck!


As discussed at length earlier this week, We Want Marangi has pretty serious doubts about Kyle Orton.

The veteran of 10 NFL seasons and four teams who found him wanting did not do much to alleviate those doubts by acting like an entitled superstar at his first news conference since replacing E.J. Manuel as Buffalo's starting quarterback.

Especially since this is a guy who was such a good teammate that Denver dumped him in mid-season after replacing him with Tim Tebow, rather than keep him around to provide the veteran leadership the Bills now expect. And who got his release from Dallas by convincing the Cowboys he did not really like playing football any more.

In the interest of fairness, however, we offer this counterpoint, courtesy of Grantland's Robert Mays.

Using the latest new-fangled football statistics, Mays argues that, with Doug Marrone's decision to swap in Orton for Manuel, the rest of the Buffalo Bills are good enough to not just reach the playoffs for the first time in 15 years, but to earn the franchise's first division title since 1995 -- Jim Kelly's penultimate season as their quarterback.
Having to abandon a first-round quarterback 14 starts into his career would be a concession for most teams, but Marrone’s choice to hand the ball to Kyle Orton isn’t the Bills’ version of waving the white flag. It’s actually their way of bearing down.
Mays bases his case primarily on Buffalo's defense, particularly its dominance against the run, while expecting at least some offensive improvement.
Manuel’s brand of bad was particularly maddening because of the group the Bills have put together around him. We were about a week away from an “Is Sammy Watkins open?” Tumblr site. Here’s a hint: Sammy Watkins is always open. Going back and watching the tape of Buffalo’s game against the Texans was brutal. Every time Watkins streaked across the middle of the field, the ball seemed to hit him in the knee, or ricochet off the fingertips of an outstretched hand.
All of which goes back to one of WWM's reservations about the move. Lost in the animus directed at Manuel for his maddening inaccuracy has been the inability of his receivers -- including Watkins -- to hold on to numerous throws that were catchable.

It may be true that Watkins is always open. Through four games, though, he does not always make the sort of catches you would expect from someone who cost your team two first-round draft picks.

An instinct for self-preservation is understandable, especially after seeing teammates get detonated by opposing defenders while leaping and stretching for Manuel's errant throws. It would be a big help, though, if the guy whose spectacular training-camp catches made him the greatest receiver in Vine history could replicate those grabs when it counts.

As Mays notes, the move to Orton puts pressure on Watkins and the rest of the Bills to live up to their analytic statistics and big-play potential. If they need an additional challenge, making their Orton-led debut in Detroit against the 3-1 Lions. Doing a better job containing Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh than they did at preventing J.J. Watt from roaming free in their backfield would be an excellent place to start.

Like his team, Marrone lost his easy excuse when he benched Manuel. Like his young quarterback, Marrone has shown occasional flashes of competence through his first season-and-a-quarter, but little to suggest that he deserves a third. Desperately turning to a quarterback who has been with the team for barely a month and had one week of practice is either a brilliant move, or a clear sign that general manager Doug Whaley made as big a mistake hiring Marrone as he did drafting Manuel.

Between Sunday's game in Detroit and a visit by staggering New England seven days later, it won't take long to find out which it is.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

'Hi. I'm Your Best Chance To Win!'


We Want Marangi is not here to debate the decision to bench E.J. Manuel, but simply to say this:

If you are depending on Kyle Orton to save your job, or your favorite team's season, you are in very, very deep shit.

Which is where Buffalo general manager Doug Whaley and head coach Doug Marrone find themselves a month into their second, and almost certainly last, seasons in their present positions -- in over their heads.

No question, four games into Manuel's first injury-free season, the 16th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft has regressed more quickly than even the most optimistic Bills fan could have thought he might improve.

A week ago in San Diego, he dumped the ball off with receivers running free in the secondary. On Sunday in Houston, visually unnerved by the destructive presence of Texans wrecking machine J.J. Watt, he looked beyond open targets to spray downfield throws that his receivers could not (or, in the case of Sammy Watkins on at least one seemingly catchable ball, would not) get near.

When Manuel did get the ball to a check-down receiver, they inevitably had to reach up or back for the ball, ensuring a minimal gain. The only guy he hit in full stride all day was Watt, whose 79-yard return of the most disastrous swing pass in Bills history put Houston ahead to stay just after halftime.

Manuel did make a couple of nice plays. There was the strike to Watkins for Buffalo's first touchdown. He also gets credit for escaping the Houston rush in the fourth quarter, seeing Mike Williams running free and not throwing it 10 yards over the Buffalo native's head.

But on a day when Buffalo's defense completely eradicated Houston's running game and forced three turnovers, while Ryan Fitzpatrick showed no reason to regret cutting him loose last spring, Manuel still managed to get his team beat.

Manuel's overthrown final pass finalized a come-from-ahead loss that pivoted on his first interception. Watt's touchdown (which you can watch again and again below, if you like) displayed the hyper-awareness and stunning athletic ability that make him the NFL's premier defensive player, but could not have happened without the dumbest throw by a Bills quarterback since Jeff Tuel's horrific goal-line decision against Kansas City last year.


The desperation on display from Marrone and Whaley is understandable, with the Pegulas poised to assume ownership of the Bills as early as next week. A 15th straight miss of the postseason would almost certainly mean a complete tear-down of the front office and coaching staff. Terry and Kim may have stuck with Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff too long after buying the Sabres, but at least their resumes included a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals and another to the semis.

Benching Manuel, though, serves as an admission by Whaley and Marrone that they not only botched their first No. 1 draft choice, but also squandered what would be their third top pick next spring by trading it away to get in position to take Watkins with their second. That decision only makes sense if they had accurately assessed Manuel's potential and progress. Which, quite clearly, they did not.

Nor did they manage to come up with a viable Plan B. Only lucking out with Thaddeus Lewis after whiffing on Kevin Kolb and Matt Leinart kept last season's 6-10 mark from being even worse. Not that the Buffalo hierarchy learned anything from the experience, as they failed to draft or sign another potential backup until picking up Orton days before the regular season opened.

Instead, they convinced themselves that Manuel would stay healthy AND blossom into a playoff-level quarterback and, if something were to go wrong there, that Lewis could replicate his brief flash of competence AND that Tuel belongs anywhere near an NFL roster.

Wrong again, guys. And again. And again.

Marrone's insistence he only shared his decision on Manuel with his boss after making it does not suggest the strongest of working relationships, either. Power struggles usually take place when one or both parties have at least minimal credibility, which this moves strips from both men.

Which brings us to Orton, who, like Fitzpatrick, is on his fifth chance as a professional.

"I went to Doug, I said, 'Look, this gives us the best opportunity to win,'" Marrone said while announcing his decision on Monday.

Lovie Smith, Josh McDaniel, Todd Haley, Romeo Crennel and Jason Garrett have all come to a different conclusion at some point during Orton's 10-year NFL odyssey.

To be fair, Orton did start 15 games for Smith in Chicago as a rookie, but was so unimpressive that Lovie benched him once the Bears reached the playoffs thanks almost entirely to the league's stingiest scoring defense and five returns of turnovers or kicks for touchdowns.

Orton mostly sat behind Rex Grossman and Brian Griese for the next couple years, not throwing a single pass in 2006, when Chicago reached the Super Bowl.

In 2008, Orton had his best season to date, starting 15 games as Chicago went 9-7, but lost the finale to a Houston team with nothing to play for and missed the postseason. The Orton-led Bears ranked 26th in total yards and 27th in yards per pass attempt.

By that point, the Bears were so eager to get rid of Orton that they sent him with two first-round picks and a third-rounder to get Jay Cutler. It looked like a great deal for Denver when the Broncos started out 6-0. Orton went on to join Daunte Culpepper as the only starting quarterbacks since 1990 whose teams managed to miss the playoffs after opening with six straight wins.

A year later, Orton -- saddled with an historically awful defense and non-existent running game -- was benched in favor of Tim Tebow with three games remaining in a 4-12 season.

An injured Orton was replaced by Tebow again early in 2012 and subsequently traded to Kansas City, where he started the last three games of the season, winning two. His performance did not help Crennell, who took over as interim coach when the Chiefs fired Haley the week before Orton's debut.

Orton's only significant action in two years in Dallas came in last season's finale. With the Cowboys needing a win against Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football to reach the playoffs and Tony Romo sidelined with a back injury, Orton put up one of the best statistical games of his career, going 30-of-46 for 358 yards and two scores.

Then, with nearly two minutes left and his team down by two points, he did this.

So, in nine NFL seasons, Orton has been found wanting by four other franchises, proven himself as the only professional quarterback who could not keep Tim Tebow on the bench and misfired, badly, on the biggest throw of his career. Then he quit, or at least pretended to in order to get out of his contract in Dallas, failing to show up for offseason workouts or much of anything else related to the Cowboys until they released him. He signed with Buffalo a month later, missing any chance to get practice time with the first-team offense during training camp.

Yet, according to Marrone, he gives the Bills their "best chance to win," a notion shared by a fair portion of the populace, judging from social media and talk radio. That improvement seems to stem from a belief that Orton is significantly more accurate and/or less mistake-prone than Manuel, neither of which is borne out by the historical record, either. In 75 career appearances, Orton has completed 58.5 percent of his passes to his teammates, with 2.6 percent going to the other guys. Manuel's numbers in the same categories: 58.6 and 2.7.

In his defense, Orton does seem like a fun guy. He was an inaugural member of the Deadspin Hall of Fame, thanks to a propensity for partying around people willing to take and publish photographs of the proceedings and their aftermath.

He is also, according to the WWM Research Department, the only quarterback in National Football League history of whom a picture exists involving him pretending to perform oral sex in a limousine. (Editor's note: We will let you use your favorite search engine to find that one, as well as a seemingly infinite array of Orton enjoying his time off on your own, if you wish.)

We will not hold Orton's past off-field conduct against him. After all, Jim Kelly liked to cut loose once in a while, too, though he was fortunate enough to do so before such modern marvels as Deadspin, TMZ and Twitter came along.

So Orton does immediately give the Bills an improved social media presence, even if the most popular Twitter presence bearing his name, which we will also allow you to locate yourself, is a parody account playing off the hard-drinking frat-boy image of his early years with the Bears.

The idea that Orton gives Buffalo a "better chance to win," though, can not be based on anything other than forced optimism, a strategic Hail Mary by a coach frantically trying to avoid the shortest non-interim Buffalo coaching tenure since Mike Mularkey's.

On behalf of everyone else dreading the thought of spending the next three months watching a less-mobile version of Fitzpatrick flummox his new team to another 5-11 finish, followed by another front-office demolition, I hope that I am wrong about Orton. But I can't come up with a single reason to think that I am.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

More Needed From Manuel To Avoid Fitz Flashback


It's been nearly a week since an NFL player has been accused of attacking, "disciplining" or trying to kill anyone, so We Want Marangi can fully focus on a truly important issue -- is it time to turn on E.J. Manuel?

No one, other than some perpetually aggrieved internet commenters, has started calling for Kyle Orton yet.

But if Manuel, who has turned in two solid performances and one abysmal outing as the Buffalo Bills got off to a parallel 2-1 start, wants to prevent that near-inevitability, out-playing the guy who he replaced would help.

Buffalo faces the sixth-greatest quarterback in its franchise history in Houston on Sunday. In his first three starts for his fifth professional team, Fitzpatrick has followed the familiar pattern that eventually led the first four to move on -- a couple efficient, if unspectacular efforts followed by a thorough meltdown.

Bills fans would have recognized the Fitzpatrick of Week 3 immediately. With the Texans looking to go 3-0 against the winless and previously hapless New York Giants, Fitzpatrick crushed any such hopes with a pair of first-half interceptions, one of which set up a point-blank New York touchdown to put his team down 14-0. That might sound familiar to anyone who recalls Buffalo's' 48-28 loss to the Jets a little more than two years ago:
Fitzpatrick did not merely throw three interceptions. He threw three horrendous interceptions, misfires that were either incredibly poor reads that misjudged both the Jets’ coverage schemes and the abilities of the interceptors or miserably off-target throws. Or both. Each was thrown in the general direction of a receiver running an out pattern, one of the most basic passes expected of a minimally competent NFL quarterback. 
The timing of the interceptions could not have been worse, either. The first negated Buffalo safety Bryan Scott’s pick of a misguided heave by Mark Sanchez and gave the Jets good field position for their first touchdown drive. The second ended what started as a decent drive, ceding New York an even shorter field for the game’s second score. The third handed Jets corner Antonio Cromartie a 40-yard touchdown that pushed it to 34-7 little more than a minute into the second half, effectively ending the game’s competitive portion.
Like Manuel against San Diego a week ago, or himself incessantly through his Buffalo career, Fitzpatrick made his stat line in a 30-17 loss to the Giants look a little better with a bunch of short completions when they no longer mattered.

At his best, Fitzpatrick embodies the cliche of a quarterbacking "game manager," doing enough to keep his team from getting embarrassed. At less than his best, he causes columnists to write like this:
A team with a franchise quarterback can win with a suspect defense, but the 1985 Bears' D would be lucky to win eight games with Fitzpatrick as their quarterback.
Of course, you will hear more talk like that about Manuel if he looks lousy again against the Texans. Houston's pass rush, missing rookie Jedeveon Clowney, has been average so far, but J.J. Watt is capable of keeping Manuel throwing rushed, high passes and looking to dump the ball to Fred Jackson if the Bills let him.

Fitzpatrick's position is more tenuous. The Texans picked up longtime Patriots backup Ryan Mallett this summer, so a switch would give them the opportunity to see if they need to draft a quarterback next spring and a better shot at a weak AFC South.

Orton has not ever been anyone's quarterback of the future. In a best-case scenario, he gives the Bills what the Texans want from Fitzpatrick -- efficiency without mistakes. But like Fitzpatrick, he has never provided either to multiple franchises for any substantial period of time. Turning to him at any point would amount to surrendering on both Manuel and the season.

Manuel has avoided fatal errors so far this year, and did the same through most of his abbreviated rookie season. But he has not consistently been the playmaker the Bills used the 16th pick in the 2013 draft to select, either.

Beating the Texans, even with a career game, will not signal Manuel's arrival as a playoff-quality quarterback. It should, however, keep anyone from deluding themselves into thinking Orton is an option.

At least for another week.